The meteoric rise of Denmark's Novo Nordisk A/S from century-old insulin producer to Europe's most valuable company has been a feel-good story of innovation in a region where those are rare. Its diabetes and obesity drugs Ozempic and Wegovy, have become a global phenomenon: They opened up a market potentially worth $100 billion and transformed the Danish economy (and Hollywood too). It's reminiscent of Finland's boom in the heyday of cellphone pioneer Nokia Oyj -- until Apple Inc.'s iPhone spoiled the party.

A Nokia-esque turn for the worse is now potentially unfolding, however. Novo's shares plummeted by 21% on Friday to their lowest level since August 2023, after the study results of next-generation experimental obesity shot CagriSema fell short of the 25% weight loss that had been predicted. The actual result of 20.4% to 22.7% weight loss over 68 weeks is obviously neither failure nor disruption, as my colleague Lisa Jarvis notes, and is in line with the performance of rival Eli Lilly & Co.'s existing Zepbound shot. But it does speak to the eroding competitive advantage of a European first mover in the face of a ferocious US rival: Lilly's shares rose and it's now viewed as the preeminent market player that could become the first trillion-dollar drug company.