JOHNSON CITY, Tenn. (WJHL) -- Saturday's incident in which Erwin police officers fired shots that ended in the death of Grady McIntosh was Northeast Tennessee's fourth officer-involved shooting (OIS) of 2024.
That's the same number of OISs regionwide as in 2023, putting the last two years at less than half the average of the previous four years, according to Tennessee Bureau of Investigation (TBI) data. The region averaged 8.5 OISs per year from 2019-2022, with a high of 11 in 2019 and a low of six in 2020.
In fact, as many people died in such encounters in 2019 alone (8) as were shot total in 2023 and 2024 combined.
Since 2019, 25 people have died in the 42 total officer-involved shootings in Northeast Tennessee, while statewide there have been 185 deaths and 307 total officer-involved shootings during the same period. That is an OIS-related death roughly every 12 days. A good number of the incidents have resulted in injuries to officers, with a handful of fatalities to officers.
A local criminal justice instructor called the recent regional data "a positive trend" but cautioned that with such small numbers, drawing any strong conclusions isn't warranted.
"You'd have to go to each individual case," Northeast Tennessee Community College's Eric Stanton said. "With as few as we have, you would have to dissect why the shooting occurred and then you'd have to talk to the TBI, talk to the investigators and find out."
Whatever the causes, if any, the last two years have seen the region's numbers fall much more in line with Northeast Tennessee's percentage of the state's population. Between 2019 and 2022, the region's OIS numbers each year were higher than the area's share of Tennessee's population, which is about 7.5%.
They ranged from 21% of the total in 2019 and 20% in 2022 to 13% in 2020 and 2021. The past two years, the four OISs account for 8% of the state's totals.
"One or higher is unfortunate for the people that are involved, the families of the loved ones ... it's unfortunate for the officers that now have to live with that, knowing that they've had to do that and they've been placed in that position to have to do so," Stanton said.
He said the vast majority of police encounters end without officers having to use any type of force or even threats of force.
"That force continuum goes from officer presence to deadly force, and there's a lot of stuff in between," Stanton said.
"It may result in arrest, but it's officer present, officer dialogue. Doesn't have to go to intermediate weapons, it doesn't have to go to (pepper) spray, it doesn't have to go to strong-arm tactics and deadly force."
Most officer-involved shootings are deemed justified following a process that begins with a TBI investigation and ends with local district attorney generals and sometimes grand juries acting on the TBI findings.
Tennessee's statewide totals have been remarkably steady since 2019, with an average of almost one person per week being shot by a law enforcement officer during that period. The statewide low of 46 came in 2020, while the high of 55 came the following year. The total reached 53 twice (2019 and 2024, with a week remaining) and 50 twice (2022 and 2023).
Stanton said he believes a rising number of untreated or undertreated mental health issues, combined with "co-occurring conditions" such as illicit drug use, underlie a significant portion of OIS cases. He said such a finding in the case of McIntosh wouldn't necessarily surprise him.
Erwin police say McIntosh was heard racking a shotgun when police arrived on a noise complaint, and he then allegedly pointed the gun at officers after they told him to drop it.
"It is a very unfortunate situation, but until we get control of the mental health in this country, unfortunately, you're going to see situations like this," Stanton said.